Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BCH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-29 0.004050 0.004257 0.004469 0.004704 0.004955 0.005217 0.005512
2025-01-05 0.003628 0.003932 0.004257 0.004631 0.005052 0.005512 0.006056
2025-01-12 0.003411 0.003773 0.004171 0.004643 0.005193 0.005815 0.006578
2025-01-19 0.003140 0.003525 0.003957 0.004481 0.005106 0.005832 0.006750
2025-01-26 0.003019 0.003436 0.003912 0.004503 0.005222 0.006081 0.007198
2025-02-02 0.002973 0.003428 0.003957 0.004626 0.005461 0.006482 0.007850
2025-02-09 0.002842 0.003309 0.003861 0.004570 0.005470 0.006593 0.008133
2025-02-16 0.002750 0.003231 0.003809 0.004562 0.005535 0.006774 0.008511
2025-02-23 0.002656 0.003148 0.003745 0.004534 0.005569 0.006912 0.008835
2025-03-02 0.002607 0.003116 0.003742 0.004581 0.005702 0.007182 0.009351
2025-03-09 0.002524 0.003039 0.003677 0.004544 0.005717 0.007293 0.009647
2025-03-16 0.002446 0.002965 0.003614 0.004505 0.005726 0.007392 0.009929
2025-03-23 0.002353 0.002869 0.003521 0.004425 0.005680 0.007416 0.010107
2025-03-30 0.002270 0.002785 0.003441 0.004359 0.005649 0.007460 0.010319
2025-04-06 0.002224 0.002746 0.003418 0.004370 0.005726 0.007661 0.010780
2025-04-13 0.002118 0.002626 0.003283 0.004221 0.005567 0.007507 0.010675
2025-04-20 0.002083 0.002598 0.003271 0.004240 0.005652 0.007718 0.011161
2025-04-27 0.002083 0.002618 0.003324 0.004354 0.005878 0.008153 0.012039
2025-05-04 0.002025 0.002557 0.003263 0.004302 0.005854 0.008201 0.012276
2025-05-11 0.001986 0.002519 0.003234 0.004295 0.005898 0.008354 0.012699
2025-05-18 0.001942 0.002475 0.003193 0.004269 0.005911 0.008459 0.013043
2025-05-25 0.001923 0.002465 0.003200 0.004313 0.006032 0.008743 0.013725
2025-06-01 0.001880 0.002419 0.003156 0.004279 0.006030 0.008823 0.014040